Manpower Planning

The Resource Plan

A simple definition - determining total crew requirements, in terms of establishment numbers.

A key function of Manpower Planning is to advise partner areas such as Flight Operations and Cabin Crew Management on how many crews need to be employed to fly seasonal schedules. This is determined through careful analysis of a proposed flying program and the impact it will have on the annual utilization of crew.

Manpower Planners must maintain a close working relationship with all stakeholders who have input on crew use, or any planned aircraft acquisitions or disposals, and any potential changes to the route structure. When the schedule changes, there is likely to be an impact on crew utilization which in turn affects the number of crew needed.

As it can take many months to ‘place’ crew into their category, recruit and train them to a specific rank, it is extremely important that a sound knowledge of future crew requirements is maintained and communicated to Flight Operations and Cabin Crew Management well in advance. While this is largely influenced by the flying schedule, there are numerous strategies that can be adapted to optimize utilization within any given set of constraints.

Until such analysis is completed, crew number predictions can only be estimated, initially a conservative approach is taken until there is a more accurate ‘feel’ for the operation. The parameters taken includes crew reliability (or culture in terms of sickness), the reliability of the fleet, and its impact on standby/reserve crew requirements and the schedule.

Simplified Crew Number Calculation

Note: This is only one simplified concept and is not meant to replace a thorough manpower planning process.

Step 1: Calculate Aircraft Block Hours

The first step is to establish the aircraft annual block hours. If there is no schedule data available, forecasted aircraft block hours can be used.

Calculate the annual block hours value for each aircraft. For example, Network Planning are expecting to fly each aircraft 10.4 hours per day. When the value differs per aircraft per day, take the daily average.

The following two examples use a single aisle aircraft, an A320, expected block hour value per day of 10.4 hours Table 1 and aircraft block hours value per day of 9.3 Table 2. (PA = per aircraft)

Table 1. 3 aircraft

Table 2. 5 aircraft

Historic schedule data could also be used as a reference. When a schedule uses different aircraft types, ensure the process is completed for each aircraft type.

Whether we use aircraft block hour estimates or a known block hour value from a schedule, the formula applied to calculate crew numbers is the same.

Step 2: Calculate Crew Utilization (Block) Hours

What is Crew Utilization?

Crew utilization is based on how much flying can be achieved from every crew member every day. Airlines will usually plan and budget recruitment on annual utilization.

• What are the maximum hours of flight time permissible in any calendar year?
• What is the length in days of a roster period?

The utilization value is driven by the schedule which determines crew recruitment, a high utilization value indicates an efficient schedule whereas as a low utilization value indicates inefficiencies.

Calculate the average crew utilization (block) hours for a 12-month period. The airline may have a fixed value, an annual utilization average of 840 crew block hours per annum, is approximately 70 crew block hours per month.

To determine how many flight hours or block hours each crew member will contribute per year, we have used the following factors in our example:

• 900 hours of flight time per year
• monthly roster periods
• Crew are assigned 70 flight hours per roster period (accruing 840 flight hours per annum)
• Each crew member provides 220 days of work per year (based on 96 days off, 11 days in lieu, 28 days of annual leave and 10 training days).

Calculating the 840 flight hours per annum divided by 220 available days of work means the schedule needs to generate 3.8 flight hours per day per crew member to obtain maximum optimization. This value does not allow for uncontrolled events; sickness, training failure, schedule disruption and other unforeseen events.

Step 3: Apply the Formula

Divide the aircraft block hours by crew utilization hours.

Using the aircraft block hours from Table 1 (3796) with various crew annual block hour utilization values, we can see that crew efficiencies are driven by the schedule and this determines recruitment.

3796 scheduled aircraft block hours divided by:

Crew Sets

A crew set is the minimum regulatory requirement used for a flight sector to operate as a commercial flight. For our example we are using an A320 which requires 1 Captain, 1 First Officer, 1 Cabin Supervisor and 3 Flight Attendants.

The crew set consists of 6 employees. The result of our equation is 5.93 crew sets or 35.58 (36) employees, or 6 Captains, 6 First Officers, 6 Cabin Supervisors and 18 Flight Attendants.

To accurately determine how many crew sets are needed to fly, we need to take a micro look at the schedule (the following examples use the projected 10.4 aircraft daily block hour estimate as the actual roster period schedule value). We also using variables.

Variables

Typically, there are two forms of variables, controlled and uncontrolled.

Controllable Variables

These are values used by planners to calculate the number of crew required to cover for crew not available to fly a schedule. This could be for vacation, training, administrative duties, or facilitating. It is not uncommon for percentage values to be applied.

Uncontrollable Variables

This variable is needed to account for any uncontrolled events – mostly in the prevention or reduction of flight disruption. These are values which can be very subjective and need to be reviewed regularly. It is not uncommon for a committee to oversee the values of the variables.

Sickness can account for 5-10% on average. A resource plan requirement of 90 pilots to sustain the operating plan would reflect 97.2 pilots in that Plan using an 8% sickness average variable. Adding a standby variable of 8% to the sickness variable would reflect a total requirement of 105 pilots. It is necessary for realistic values to be considered when accounting for any uncontrolled events to prevent a manpower deficiency or worst-case, flight cancellations owing to insufficient crew being available.

Using variables and the annual block hours for 1 aircraft referenced in Table 1 we can calculate the number of crew sets required for a 365-day duration refer to Table 3 and a 31-day roster period: – refer to Table 4.

Table 3. 365-day duration

The number of crew Sets required to operate the flying program is 6.

The crew set consists of 6 employees. The result of our equation is 5.93 crew sets or 35.58 (36) employees, or 6 Captains, 6 First Officers, 6 Cabin Supervisors and 18 Flight Attendants.

Using the same concept as applied for 365 days, a 31-day roster period would generate the result outlined in table 4.

Table 4. 31-day duration

The number of crew sets required to operate the flying program is 6 or 36 employees or 6 Captains, 6 First Officers, 6 Cabin Supervisors and 18 Flight Attendants.

The results displayed in Tables 3 & 4 do not represent the value for the number of individual crew members, the result represents the number of crew sets.

Table 5 shows calculations for the Crew Resource requirements of 1 aircraft and Table 6 for 8 aircraft over a 365-day period using aircraft block hours of 10.4 hours per day.

Table 5. Total Crew Required for 1 × Aircraft

Table 6. Total Crew Required for 8 × Aircraft

All the variables taken in the manpower plan are based on the rolling historical analysis by the airline to manage the trends.

Importance of Communication

The time frame needed for advertising crew positions, completing the interview and selection process can take several weeks or months before selected candidates can start training. Failure to inform key partner areas will inevitably generate delays in the recruitment lead time and potentially cause future growth plans to be delayed.

When the schedule is released, the aircraft block hours will be known. This value should be locked into the Manpower Planning Application. Refer to Table 4 for a 31-day roster example. The aircraft block hours value should not be much different to when the season schedule was released. What may be significant is the loss of efficiency in crew utilization when creating pairings.

It is necessary for realistic values to be considered when accounting for any uncontrolled events to prevent a manpower deficiency or worst-case, flight cancellations owing to insufficient crew being available.